On Saturday the 2021 Six Nations will start with the tournament being played behind closed doors for the first time ever.
Rugby fans will be hoping for high quality entertaining sport, as a respite from a year of on-off lockdown and a distraction from a pandemic that has caused the death of 273,000 people in the nations involved in the tournament alone.
England start as clear favourites for the tournament, priced at 2.2 or 45% on the betting markets. England are on a 8 match winning run with their last loss in Paris on the opening week of last year’s competition.
The absence of four regular forward starters in Sinckler, Vunipola, Launchbury and Underhill for their opener against Scotland as well as a tendency to start slowly is a cause of slight concern. However England remain clear favourites for the match, and will start all their games in this year’s tournament as favourites, with possibly the trickiest challenge saved for last, a trip to Dublin where in both 2011 and 2017 their grand slam hopes evaporated at the final hurdle.
France have won back the love and support of the Rugby World since the 2019 World Cup. The Toulouse half-back pairing of Dupont and Ntamack have reignited France’s backline and their fearless brand of running rugby is refreshing in a Northern Hemisphere Rugby environment dominated both domestically and internationally by low risk negative styles of play.
An injury to Vakatawa, arguably the best outside back in the Northern Hemisphere on form is a shame, however France still have an abundance of options, as they showed when their second string side came within seconds of beating England at Twickenham in December.
They start against an inexperienced Italian side in Rome, which should give them the perfect opportunity to warm up for tougher challenges to come. France travel to Twickenham and Dublin, venues they haven’t won at for over a decade, with renewed optimism and start as second favourites for the Championship. If this tournament does end up coming down to points difference or bonus points, France’s try scoring ability could give them the edge.
Ireland– An uninspiring 2020 campaign which followed a disappointing 2019 World Cup came to the dismay of Irish fans.
Hope that Andy Farrell could take the best of the Joe Schmidt era and add more innovation, creativity and attacking threat out wide proved to be futile as an attritional series of performances saw Ireland go 3-2 outmuscling Scotland, Wales and Italy in Dublin but coming up way short at Twickenham and in Paris.
Whether Farrell is ready to try and expand his tactics and allow the likes of Gary Ringrose and James Lowe more opportunities is still to be seen. Whilst it’s easy for me to sit here and say that they need to develop their game in order to be able to compete with the top teams especially at World Cups, results in the short term matter, and Wayne Pivac’s tenure at Wales has shown that trying to implement a new style can make things considerably worse before any signs of improvement even start to manifest.
Ireland are third favourites at 5.5 for the tournament, and with England and France to play at home, they have a real chance. Their opening game against Wales in Cardiff could be defining, win it and the tournament could open up for them, lose it and they could get in a hole fast.
Wales– If Ireland’s last year has been uninspiring, the start to Wayne Pivac’s tenure in Cardiff has been a complete disaster.
The Kiwi chosen to inherit Gatland’s legacy, and add in the sort of running game that saw the Scarlets light up the Pro 14 has lost all his six matches in charge against tier 1 nations.
Issues around the bubble isolation of players contracted with English clubs such as Falatau has emerged and whilst Wales still have the same core players of their 2019 Grand Slam winning side, it seems they’ve dropped so many levels now that it would be a surprise for them to end up with a winning record.
Wales will start four of their five games as underdogs and are 20/1 outsiders to win the tournament. Their opening game against Ireland will be key to stopping the rut and getting their fans back on side. Lose that and it could be a long tournament for the Welsh.
Italy will be hoping to end a six year 27 match losing run in the Six Nations. Franco Smith has picked four uncapped players for this year’s tournament, and he’ll be hoping the strange circumstances around the tournament can allow Italy to spring a surprise or two.
The emergence of Paolo Garbisi at fly-half has been a rare positive amidst years of decline into mediocrity for Italy and neutrals will hope he can ignite Italy’s backline into life.
Issues with fitness, discipline, defensive structure and basic tackling will likely again plague Italy whose best chance of a win will probably come against Wales in Rome in Round 4.
Talking Points Many have complained for a long time about Northern Hemisphere Rugby both domestically and internationally having too much kicking, too big an emphasis on the set piece and maul, too little running rugby and too few tries.
For a long time I could see their point but still felt the Northern Hemisphere product whilst not being always as viewer friendly as the Southern Hemisphere had its own merits and was still great to watch.
However in the last year or two I’ve begun to change my mind. The emergence of Exeter Chiefs’ ‘pick and go’ game and now England’s ‘kicking game’ which involves Ford and Farrell about 15 times a match aimlessly kicking it 40 metres down field because England have concluded (sadly probably rightly) that running it from anywhere inside your own half is too risky have made watching games featuring either side unenjoyable.
The Autumn Nations Cup was a terrible advert for the game and something has to be done to change this worrying trend.
Prediction
As market prices reflect, England are the most likely winners followed by France then Ireland. Wales and Scotland are big outsiders and Italy need a miracle that would dwarf Leicester’s 2016 Premier League title win.
I think we’ll get a better spectacle than the Autumn Nations Cup with teams fielding their strongest sides in every game. The lack of crowds might actually ease the pressure on players, and see fewer mistakes, more attacking play and more tries, as has happened in the Premier League.
Wales, Italy, France and Scotland all play positive attacking brands of Rugby, and whilst England and Ireland have been pretty negative in the last 12 months, they both have talented backlines that with service can score tries.
Stars to watch out for include Jonny May who might well be the best winger in the World on current form, James Lowe making his Irish 6 Nations debut and Teddy Thomas who only needs a little bit of space to make something happen.
England and France to both finish 4-1, but England to win it on bonus points.
MPRL Sports 